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员Randall Kroszner先生的一篇演讲, 他解释了一个发行于20007年出的典型2-28贷款是如何运作的.他说,贷款利率最初设为7%,两年后将跳升至9.5%. 对一个典型的借贷者来讲,每月将增加还贷350USD. Mortgage Getflashplayer Www searchB Mortgage s Lenders d Mortgage ssearcht Mortgage esearch$ Payment 6 searchi Getflashplayer l Loan o f Payment ssearchbp Lenders isearche Www ARssearchtsearcha r Szh csearchesearchu Mortgage edsearchtsearch Www e Payment etdsearchr Lenders n Szh Getflashplayer 0search8 Payment 1 Getflashplayer 2b Lenders lsearchi Getflashplayer n Getflashplayer osearch t Payment e Lenders lsearchasearchssearchwsearcht Www searchdjsearchssearchal Lenders searchasearche Lendersmortgagepayments a Www ee Lenders to Www esearcht, Lenders csearchr Szh ng Lendersmortgagepayments oa Lenders Payment er Payment a Payment ec Www itsearchssearchT Loan Loan her sti Lendersmortgagepayments an Lenders in Payment u Lenders " Mortgage m Payment " searchr Www asearchs Lendersmortgagepayments f mo Lenders th Szh 1 Mortgage 0 Mortgage anA Mortgage -l Mortgage ns, a Mortgage asearchgy between prime and subprime. The latter category is the riskier, in part because it includes borrowers who provided little or no documentation of their income or assets.
根据Banc of America Securities的分析, 除了3620亿次级ARM的利率将在2008年被调整, 另外还有1520亿其他可变利率贷款也需要调整. 其他需要调整的贷款还包括: 超过417,000USD的 “jumbo”抵押贷款; ALT-A贷款, 一类介于初级和次级贷款之间的贷款. 更大的风险是后者,因这部分包括了那些只能提供极少文件来证明他们的收入和财产的贷款者.
The number of borrowers facing higher payments isn’t growing merely because the amount of loans with resets is higher. Another factor is that those with a looming reset now have a tougher time sidestepping it by refinancing or selling their home. "There is a large amount of borrowers who are in products that either no longer exist or that they no longer qualify for," says Banc of America Securities analyst Robert Lacoursiere.
面临更高还款支付的借贷者的数量将不会纯粹上升, 因为可调整贷款的数量更高.另一个因素是那些影子调整的贷款者只有很紧的时间来重新融资和卖掉房子来回避. “ 相当多借贷者的房子将不复存在或者没有资格拥有.” Banc of America Securities 的分析师Robert Lacoursiere先生说.
Falling home prices mean that many borrowers have little or no equity in their home, making it tougher for them to get out from under their loans.
房价下跌意味着许多借贷者拥有极少或甚至没有的房屋资产价值. 这将加剧了他们走出贷款压力的难度.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and the chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Sheila Bair, have been pressing lenders to modify terms in a sweeping way, rather than going through a time-consuming case-by-case evaluation that could end up pushing many people into foreclosure. Officials at the Federal Reserve and in the Bush administration have estimated that 150,000 mortgages are resetting a month.
财政部长Henry Paulson 和Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.的Sheila Bair女士 已经大规模地给出贷方施加压力改变贷款条件,而不用能使更多人陷入丧失抵押赎回权的消耗时间的逐案评估的方式. 联邦储备官半夜凉初透员和布什政府估计每个月将有150000宗抵押能办理调整.
Ms. Bair has proposed that mortgage companies freeze the interest rates on some two million mortgages at the rate before the reset to help borrowers avoid trouble. "Keep it at the starter rate," Ms. Bair said at conference last month. "Convert it into a fixed rate. Make it permanent. And get on with it."
Bair 女士建议抵押公司在调整来临之前冻结部分200万宗抵押的利率, 以帮助贷款者回避困难.” 保持在最初设定的利率”, 在上个月的会议上Bair 女士说,” 把他们转到固定利率, 把它变成永久的,继续按这样做.”
Picking up on that theme, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in the past week announced an agreement with four major loan servicers, including Countrywide Financial Corp., the nation’s biggest mortgage lender, to freeze the interest rates on certain ARMs that are resetting. The freeze would be temporary, rather than for the life of the loan. The program is aimed at borrowers who are living in their homes and making their mortgage payments on time, but aren’t expected to be able to make the higher payments after reset.
同样的,加州州长施瓦辛格在上周和4家主要的贷款商包括本国最大的抵押贷款提供商Countrywide Financial Corp达成协议,冻结部分特定的正在调整的ARM的利率, 但这个冻结是临时的,并非在整个贷款周期上. 这个计划是针对那些住在他们的房子里并且还款准时,在调整利率后认为不能承受更高支付的贷款者.
The mortgage industry opposes a blanket move to modify loans that are resetting, says Doug Duncan, chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association. While modification may make sense in some cases, he says, it may also simply postpone the inevitable or reward borrowers who didn’t manage their finances wisely. Mr. Duncan says the industry is working with government officials and consumer groups to develop principles that could be used to determine quickly who qualifies for a modified loan.
业界反对以地毯式推进贷款调整, the Mortgage Bankers Association的首席经济学家Doug Duncan 先生说, 当某些情况下更改有意义时, 也可以简单地推迟其必然性,或者给不能精明地管理他们的资金的借贷者予回报. Duncan 先生说业界正与政府官半夜凉初透员和消费者群体一起建立能用于迅速界定谁能有资格拥有调整贷款的原则.
The political efforts are aimed at keeping the U.S. economy out of a housing-triggered recession. The Mortgage Bankers Association estimates that 1.35 million homes will enter the foreclosure process this year and another 1.44 million in 2008, up from 705,000 in 2005.
行政努力的目的是使美国经济免于因住房危机触发的经济衰退. The Mortgage Bankers Association估计今年将有135万套房子进入抵押赎回权丧失程序, 2008年将达到144万套, 而2005年仅有705,000套.
The projected supply of foreclosed homes is equal to about 45% of existing home sales and could add four months to the supply of existing homes, says Dale Westhoff, a senior managing director at Bear Stearns. This is a "fundamental shift" in the housing supply, says Mr. Westhoff, who believes that home prices will drop further as lenders "mark to market" repossessed homes.
计划供应的取消抵押赎回权的房子将占现存房子销售量的大约45%, 将增加4个月的现房供应量. Bear Stearns 的高级主管Dale Westhoff先生说, 这将是一个房子供应量的”基本变化”. 他相信房价的下跌将远远低于出贷方推向市场的二手房价格.
Foreclosed homes typically sell at a discount of 20% to 25% compared to the sale of an owner-occupied home, analysts say. Lenders are eager to unload the properties, and the homes tend to be in poorer condition.
与有产权的房子售价相比, 取消抵押赎回权的房子售价将折价20%~25%.分析师说. 出贷方渴望摆脱拥有资产的负担,而房子则趋向于更糟糕的状况.
"People didn’t leave the house happily," says Jason Bosch, a broker with Home Center Realty in Norco, Calif. "There are often signs of that. There’s used, dirty carpet. The grass is dead." Mr. Bosch says he now has about 120 bank-owned properties for sale or in escrow compared with none a year ago.
“人们不会开心地离开他们的房子”, 加州NOCOR的Home Center Realty公司经纪人Jason Bosch先生说,” 常有很多那样的迹象, 被使用过,脏脏的地毯,草坪也死了.” Jason Bosch先生说,相比不到一年前,他手头上就有大约120套银行拥有产权或第三方保管的房子可供销售.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress earlier this month, "A sharp increase in foreclosed properties for sale could...weaken the already struggling housing market and thus, potentially, the broader economy."
联邦储备委员会主人比黄花瘦席伯克南先生本月早些时候告诉国会,” 剧增的取消抵押赎回权的房子销售将….削弱已经困难重重的房地产市场, 潜在地将波及更广泛的经济范围.”
The big concern is a vicious cycle in which foreclosures push down home prices, making it more difficult for borrowers to refinance and causing more defaults and foreclosures.
更大的关注是这种局面将陷入恶性循环, 丧失抵押赎回权的房子将拉低房价, 使更多的借贷者难于重新融资而引起更多的房贷无法偿还和丧失抵押赎回权
Real-estate agents, who look at prices for comparable homes, or comps, say the sale of bank-owned properties can have a big impact. "One month the comps are showing one price and then a bank comes in and sells a property for $30,000 less," says Randal Gibson, a real-estate agent in Henderson, Nev. "All of the sudden, that’s the new comp. It hurts everyone in the neighborhood."
房地产公司观察可比房屋的价格或者两者, 说银行拥有产权的房屋销售有更大的影响,” 一个月里两者比较都在同一个价位上,然而银行拥有产权的房屋以少30000USD的价格销售,’ Henderson, Nev 的房地产代理Randal Gibson先生说.” 所有的都很突然, 然后进入新的两者对比,这样都损害到所有的邻居.”
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